PBOC

JHI on the Issues 2016: Is China Actively Devaluing Its Currency?

JHI on the Issues 2016:  Is China Actively Devaluing Its Currency?

While the Chinese currency appreciated strongly in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, over the past 18 months that appreciation has almost completely reversed, with the Yuan now back to its weakest levels since the ’08 crisis.  Yet that trend line obscures a number of developments that might surprise Trump and supporters of his China-related economic policy.  Since 2014, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has indeed intervened repeatedly to affect the value of its currency, but almost invariably to strengthen the Yuan, not to weaken it.  More recently, however, the PBoC has relaxed the intensity of its interventions, allowing markets to push the value of the Yuan downward, a reflection of both U.S. dollar strength and worries over the increasing slowdown of the Chinese economy. Despite its enduring popularity as political red meat, the value of the Chinese currency has never had a historic correlation with U.S. joblessness.  U.S. job strength is not dictated by China’s currency regime, but rather by pro-growth U.S. government policies.